AWUS01 KWNH 191009
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern/central/northern TX into
southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191005Z - 191515Z

SUMMARY..Slow moving thunderstorms may result in widely scattered
areas of flash flooding from southwestern to central to northern
TX into southern OK through 15Z. Rainfall totals of 3 to 4+ inches
are expected.

DISCUSSION...0945Z radar imagery over OK/TX showed two regions of thunderstorms. The first was across the southeastern TX Panhandle
into southwestern OK and northern TX, bisecting a quasi-stationary
front draped from the Red River into southwestern TX. The second
area of thunderstorms was across the Trans Pecos region, also near
the front, out ahead of a slowly eastward advancing upper level
shortwave trough across far western TX/southeastern NM. Both
regions of thunderstorms were located near a gradient in
instability with strong MLCAPE values of 2000 to 4000+ J/kg
estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data from near Del Rio to Abilene
to Dallas/Fort Worth. In addition, weak deep layer steering flow
was resulting in slow storm motions and MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall between 1 and 3 inches.

A gradual eastward movement to the somewhat disorganized upper
level trough over western TX/NM should provide added ascent into
portions of central TX this morning, likely resulting in an
increase in thunderstorm coverage from 12Z-15Z. The greatest
coverage is expected to be from northern TX into southern OK where
ongoing convection is most robust with embedded mesocyclones and
stronger low level convergence in place. However, at least
scattered coverage of thunderstorms is expected to develop farther
south as well. Given forcing for ascent is not very organized and
deep layer shear is poor, storm organization and motions will be
somewhat chaotic, with an overall eastward translation of heavy
rain anticipated through the morning hours.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...LZK...MAF...OUN...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35459963 35449833 35159673 34819557 34389469
34099426 33789411 33439421 33159454 33029489
32989540 32879577 32689635 31859740 30889846
30109941 29570019 29540134 30020187 30620171
31350043 32309945 32799883 33299880 33669906
33899965 34200027 34570053 35130030

$$
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