AWUS01 KWNH 191137
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-191730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0462
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191130Z - 191730Z

SUMMARY...Blossoming thunderstorms will produce excessive rainfall
rates up to 3"/hr at times this morning. Flash flooding is likely
with locally significant flash flooding possible due to a
combination of excessive rainfall rates over highly saturated soils.

DISCUSSION...A 6-hr RTMA theta-e loop shows a rain cooled air-mass
located just north of a remnant outflow boundary that is
positioned from the MS Delta region on south and east into the FL
Panhandle. There remains an abundance of 1000-850mb moisture in
addition to upper 70s surface dew points along the Gulf Coast. An
IVT out of the western Gulf continues to funnel 925-850mb moisture
into the Deep South at the same time as RAP forecast guidance
shows NWrly 850-500mb streamlines to the north converge with SWrly
850-500mb flow to the south. PWs remain around 2.25" with locally
higher values present and MLCAPE >2,000 J/kg will stick around
this morning and into the early afternoon.

With an outflow boundary nearby acting as a trigger, and mid-upper
level confluence increasing this morning, the stage is set for
renewed rounds of highly efficient thunderstorms within an area of
the South that needs no more rainfall. 1-hr FFGs this morning are
<0.75" in parts of southern MS, much of southern AL, and as far
east as southwest GA. 06Z HREF probabilities between 12-18Z are
showing southern AL and the FL Panhandle as having
moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for >3" of rainfall during that
time, with low-to-moderate chances (20-40%) for totals topping 5". Thunderstorms will develop as far west as the MS River Delta
region, closer to the origins of the mid-upper level convergence
axis this morning. 06Z HREF probabilities show moderate chances
(40-60%) for rainfall totals >3" there, but note FFGs are not
nearly as low as their neighbors to the east. Still, the
atmosphere contains similar elevated moisture content and plenty
of instability, making flash flooding a concern in those areas farther west.

Between these totals and the FFGs mentioned, there is concern for
more areas of flash flooding to unfold this morning. The areas of
greatest concern are southern MS and southern AL where rainfall
totals range anywhere from as low as a couple inches in more
northern locations of the highlighted area to over 10" north of
the I-10 corridor. Portions of southern MS and southern AL are so
sensitive that 2"/hr rainfall rates will have no trouble causing
rapid water rises and become treacherous along roadways that
border creeks or drain poorly. Thunderstorms should start to
dissipate and decrease in coverage this afternoon as the
atmosphere becomes over-worked and low-level moisture transport
lessens, but until then, additional flash flooding is expected.
Given the lingering effects from yesterday's tremendous rainfall,
locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding is possible.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33309143 32688892 32488687 32448500 32278367
31978305 31408325 30378378 30008485 30378656
30778843 31328987 31609076 32279174

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